The purpose of this poster presentation is to display COVID-19 morbidity and mortality data available on-line from Our World in Data whose contributors ask the key question: “How many tests to find one COVID-19 case?”
We use SAS JMP Analyze to help answer the question. Smoothing test data from Our World in Data, yields seven-day moving average or SMA(7) total tests per thousand in five countries for which coronavirus test data are reported: Belgium, Italy, South Korea, the United Kingdom and United States.
Similarly, seven-day moving average or SMA(7) total cases per million of were derived using the Time Series Smoothing option. Coronavirus tests per case were calculated by dividing smoothed total tests by smoothed total cases and multiplying by a factor of 1,000. These ratios of smoothed tests to smoothed cases were themselves smoothed.
Additionally, Box-Jenkins ARIMA(1,1,1) time series models were fitted to smoothed total deaths per million to graphically compare smoothed case-fatality rates with smoothed tests per case ratios.
