Level: Beginner
【Presenter】
Charles Chen, MBB, Quality and Reliability, Applied Materials
[Co-presenter]
Mason Chen, Black Belt Student, Stanford University OHS
Patrick Giuliano, Black Belt Student Statistics SME, Abbott
[Presentation overview]
Poker is a very popular form of gambling at casinos or when playing with family and friends.
Most non-professional poker players lose valuable money and chips because they do not use proper probability-based logic. In this presentation, we will use 16 partial-deck AKQJ cards (Ace, King, Queen, Jack) as an example, and take a poker game that can be played by up to 6 players. Here are some poker odds that you can see from the slight drop in decks. We used the combination formula for each possible matching pattern outcome to derive a generalized expression for the matching probability. This partial-deck poker game was born out of a desire to simplify the simulation probabilities of game outcomes, with high-ranking pattern outcomes such as "full house" (which also uses regular poker hands). ), we were able to significantly improve the matching probability. In this AKQJ game, the winning pattern is the following "Four of a Kind", "Full House", "Three of a Kind" and "Two Pair". When six players are playing, this AKQJ game simply calculates the odds of regular poker to inform you when to bet, so you can reduce your emotional swings when the risk is high, and it's very It will be an exciting game. Each player is assigned different play characteristics based on their risk-taking tendencies, in order to study the player's personality and psychology. To plot the distribution of win probabilities, we use JMP's visualization platform such as Graph Builder and Distribution. Real player game data is compared to simulated probabilities by JMP's Hypothesis Proportion Testing. Participating in AKQJ games that combine statistical outcome estimation with psychological risk-taking, outcomes by real players are supported by worst-case probability (Monte Carlo) simulations, allowing card players to make decisions based on more rational data. Knowing the structure to play your hand in a different way can help you avoid the disease of gambling disorder.
[Presenter profile]
To date, he has worked on MBB, Continuous Improvement, and "JMP Transformation leader functions" in areas such as hard disk drives, automotive, healthcare, medical devices, and semiconductors.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree from National Taiwan University and a Ph.D. in Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley. To date, he has published more than 30 technical papers, and has obtained 12 US patents and 14 ASQ certificates. We also teach biostatistics, business statistics, data mining, big data, DOE, reliability planning, and organizational leadership.
