Ryan Gilmore made it official with this posting from earlier today (7/26/2021)... the JMP User Community has reached 30,000 members. It's an incredible accomplishment - especially since we passed 20,000 members less than a year ago. Congratulations to everyone at JMP for helping to make this milestone a reality.
P.S. In the article JMP Community Approaches 30K Members we asked JMP staff to predict when we would hit the 30K milestone. Here are the responses.
Rita Lv
August 27 at 3pm ET
Tim Pierce
September 12 at 11am ET
Kathy Walker
July 16 at 12:42pm ET
Caleb King
July 20 at 2:15pm ET (+/- 4 hours)
Congratulations @calking! You were the closest. Caleb outlined how he reached this prediction; here is his thought process:
I started off calculating the total members joining each day of the week (using the 2021 data). I then divided this by the number of days available in the data I used and the number of half-hour increments in the day (my predictions only go down to the half hour). The prediction consisted of the cumulative total up to a given day and half-hour increment. I then used the last two weeks to "train" my model, updating my half-hour counts (had to drop it by one standard error to get even close to the right numbers) and adding in a small adjustment over the course of the day (based on the linear fit to residuals from Graph Builder). As of today, my model has been tracking well with the member counts (as I'm able to record them). Being a good statistician, I made sure to include a 95% uncertainty bound around my estimate :-). Fingers crossed!!
Getting within a few days was pretty impressive Caleb. Be on the lookout for your JMP Prize!
Here is the full text of Ryan's posting:
It’s time to celebrate...again! The JMP User Community just welcomed its 30,000th member!
Less than a year ago, we reached 20K members (Celebrating 20,000 members in the Community ). Whether it's to ask, share, learn or connect, the Community has the resources to help you get all the value from JMP that you can. Based on how quickly we reached this milestone, we think you agree.
Be on the look out for a new "1st 30K" badge in your collection.
Please continue to support your Community by giving kudos to your fellow members, encouraging your colleagues to join, exploring areas of the Community you haven’t visited and sharing ways you think the Community can be improved.
Congratulations, Community!
Congrats @calking! Looks like you may have used a more advanced analytical method than I did.
Hooray for the Community! And thanks for the "1st 30K" badge! Congrats, everyone -- and great job @calking at predicting!
Wow! I'm still taken aback I got so close! Given my flimsy model, I was certain someone else would get closer.
Congrats to the community on this amazing milestone! At this rate, we should reach 50K users in no time!
P.S. Not an official prediction 
