Forecast weather events

manphoolfageria

We produce potatoes in different regions at global level. We have the weather data for these regions for the last 30 years. Based on this past weather data, we want to forecast the frequency of temperature (cold and dry spells), and precipitation (dry and wet spells) for the next 30 years. Can some one suggest me how to predict the future weather events based on the past data in JMP. And then based on the weather forecast I want to predict the potato production in different regions.

P_Bartell

A few thoughts for you. You've really got two types of modeling problems here. One is to produce a forward looking in time forecast for certain weather related predictor variables. The second is then building a model to relate weather predictor variables to the output variables. Some sort of y is a function x's approach. Here lots of methods for consideration. From good old fashioned ordinary least squares regression to penalized regression methods. For the weather predictor variables, one thought is to try out a time series approach. Lots to consider here...seasonality, periodicity of the original variables, irregular shocks, etc.